US Open 2022 Picks, Odds: Expert Predictions, Favorites To Win From The Betting Field At The Country Club


With the 2022 US Open fast approaching, everyone in the golf world is asking one key question: Who will you pick to win at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts? A tremendous course tops the third major of the year as the list features most of the world’s top pros. The US Open should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round onward as the USGA returns to this site for the first time since 1988.

This year’s US Open may have a massive field, but there is plenty of momentum behind a finite list of names to capture the national championship. Rory McIlroy enters a heater after defending his RBC Canadian Open title. Justin Thomas is looking to go back-to-back in the majors after his second such title at the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler’s game has cooled, but he is trying to join the thin air with a Masters-US Open double. All that without mentioning Jon Rahm spinning around and Brooks Koepka’s usual dominance in this event where he has only been beaten by four golfers, combined, at the US Open since 2017.

And then, of course, there is the story of Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson. What do you do with a couple of big names and multiple major winners who aren’t playing golf well but continue to make headlines by entering a major championship? Without Tiger Woods, even more attention than usual will be on Mickelson in particular this week.


Add it all up, and it looks like we’re in for a wild US Open full of unexpected twists and turns, but also plenty of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard.

So what’s going to happen this week in Brookline? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our experts at CBS Sports as we try to project who will win and what will happen in the third major of the season. Odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

2022 US Open Expert Picks, Predictions

Kyle Porter, Senior Golf Writer

Winner — Justin Thomas (11-1): He is playing the best golf of his career and has combined the ever-present confidence that no one in the world is better than him with a wisdom that can only come with age and experience. JT is one of the top three iron players on the planet, and his hot putter has translated into wins and near-wins in the last two months. That’s not going to change this week, as he ties Jordan Spieth with three major championships in his career.

Sleeper — Davis Riley (60-1): Quietly playing some of the best golf in the world, Riley’s swing reeks of one that could claim a US Open trophy. What he does best (smash irons) is exactly what you need to do best in the big championships and especially the US Open. Five consecutive top 20 finishes for Riley (including the PGA Championship) which I hope he does six.

Top 10 Lockdown — Brooks Koepka: I’m betting on getting US Open Brooks instead of “rest of the year” Brooks. He went 1-1-2-R4 back-to-back in this tournament and understands his rhythms perhaps better than anyone else in history. Is he playing well? Not really, but he missed three of the four cuts before last year’s US Open and then almost won it.

Star Who Definitely Won’t Win — Dustin Johnson: The reasons here are multiple. The first is that he is not playing golf particularly well. He also hasn’t had a win since the 2020 Masters and has only one top-10 finish in a PGA Tour stroke-play event so far this year. Also, this week has been so circus that even DJ has to be feeling it. He’s among the leaders of rival league LIV Golf, and though the exterior of him appears to be waterproof, the rumble has gotten so loud I’m not even sure he can ignore it.

Surprise prediction: duel between Thomas and Rory McIlroy on Sunday: I don’t know if it’s a surprise that two of the top five golfers in the world would beat each other up for one of the four most coveted titles, but the dream scenario (a cutback from last weekend’s Canadian Open) rarely plays out like this. . . It would be the perfect ending to a fortnight of golf madness.

Phil Mickelson’s prediction: Relevance has already passed this week: We’ve already heard what we’ll get from Mickelson this week. He’s not playing golf right now, and he’s certainly not going to make the cut at a US Open. He hasn’t finished in the top 25 in this tournament since he nearly won in 2013.

Lowest Round: 65 (-5)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 70 (ES)

Patrick McDonald, golf writer

Winner: Patrick Cantlay (25-1): The major championship record is poor, but take away his missed cuts at the PGA Championship and The Players Championship, and Cantlay is putting in an incredible performance this year. In those 10 starts, he has one win, two playoff losses, three top-five finishes and one top-10 finish. I love the current PGA Tour Player of the Year when we take him to a golf course where skill off the tee will be influential. in determining the winner. He’s got the whole package and it’s time for him to get the monkey off his back.

Sleeper — Corey Conners (45-1): He was a semi-finalist at the 2013 US Amateur, which is good, but the current state of the Canadian game is tailor-made for a US Open. Accurate off the tee and deadly with his irons, Conners has seen an increase in his short game numbers over the past three months. If he can convert enough of those crucial up-and-down stops, he should be there on Sunday.

Blocking Top 10 — Shane Lowry: Lowry’s first taste of major championship contention was the 2016 US Open in Oakmont. Since then, I have believed that his game is perfect for the most rigorous test of golf. He is in the midst of one of the best forms of his life, and the consistency with which he hits fairways and greens in regulation will allow him to be a factor at The Country Club.

Star Who Won’t Win — Cameron Smith: Accuracy hasn’t mattered too much at the recent US Open, but this year will be different. If this theory holds true, the Aussie will be in trouble as he regularly misses shots off the tee due to his nerve with driver in hand. Smith has competed in the first two majors of the year, so this carries a high level of risk, but he could see the world No. 6 playing defense early on.

Surprise prediction: Rory McIlroy misses the cut: I have McIlroy missing the cut one time out of five, so there is some value in his props if you choose to indulge. The four-time Grand Slam champion was runner-up at the Masters, first-round leader at the PGA Championship and all signs point to him taking No. 5 at The Country Club. It was a grueling week in Canada, and while his game is beginning to reflect that of 2014, the occasional mental lapse and inaccuracy off the tee could spell trouble for him.

Phil Mickelson Prediction: Lost Cut Despite Positive Fan Response: With two racy takes of the road, we now move on to something much smoother. The perception around Phil isn’t great right now, but I hope the Boston fans will welcome him with open arms, outside of the occasional hecklers. Despite this, let us remember that this is a 52-year-old who has only played three competitive rounds in the last four months and showed considerable rust in London.

Lowest Round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 278 (-2)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 70 (ES)

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Kyle Boone, writer

Winner: Cameron Smith (18-1): Brookline is going to demand precisely what Smith can bring: a killer short game for its lightning-fast greens and precision off the tees for the many blind shots golfers will hit this week. Smith is third on the PGA Tour this season in strokes gained from the approach and 11th in strokes gained from the putter. If he plays his game, he’ll be in the mix, and we’ve already seen him hang out with the big dogs this season with wins at The Players Championship and the Sentry Open, plus top-five finishes at the Masters and RSM Classic. .

Sleeping — Mito Pereira (55-1): With eight top-25 finishes in 21 events on the season, the 27-year-old Pereira is quietly putting together a breakout year in what is effectively his rookie campaign. Three times he has finished in the top 10, including twice in his last three starts. One of them ended in heartbreak, as he held the lead walking to the 72nd hole at the PGA Championship before relinquishing the lead thanks to a missed drive. However, Pereira is a name that he could, but should not, overlook this week given his game thus far. At 55-1, he qualifies as one of the most capable underdog contenders at this year’s US Open.

Top 10 lockdown — Rory McIlroy: It looks like this week is gearing up to be a Rory coronation. In addition to a victory at the Canadian Open last weekend, he posted top-10 finishes in three of his last four events: the Masters, the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship. At this point, it’s no fluke: McIlroy has found his way and is moving forward at the right time. He is the favorite for a reason this week and finishing in the top 10 should be the floor.

Star Who Definitely Won’t Win — Dustin Johnson: If you haven’t been on the news lately, DJs these days can be a little, well, distracted. He became the first major domino to join the LIV Golf Tour for $125 million, subsequently withdrawing his membership from the PGA Tour. Many things are happening in your world. On the pitch, there are reasons to suggest the former World No. 1 won’t win. He finished six shots off the lead in the first LIV event, which featured a weak field. And on the PGA Tour season, he missed more cuts than the top 10 for the year.

Surprise prediction: Sam Burns finishes in the top five: Burns is 25-1 to win outright. Don’t hate those odds one bit, but finishing in the top five is a much safer bet. Since he won the Valspar Championship in March, he has two top-five finishes and another win (at Charles Schwab two weeks ago). He also enters the weekend with a T4 at the Canadian Open, where he was able to hang tough with the likes of Thomas, Shane Lowry and Scottie Scheffler.

Phil Mickelson Prediction — Failed Court: Lefty fired 10 more in three rounds last weekend, his first competitive action since a months-long hiatus that began in February. There is no reason to expect him to do more than miss the cut. Even before the timeout on him, he missed cuts in his last two starts. He is a long way from finding the same form that helped him win the PGA Championship in impressive fashion a year ago.

Lowest Round: 64 (-6)
Winning score: 267 (-13)
Winner’s Sunday Score: 68 (-2)