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Sixers Trust the Prophecy: vote for what happens with Harden’s contract situation

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This “Trust the Prophecy” survey will seek to harness the collective wisdom of the Liberty Ballers community. The wisdom of crowds is often more powerful than an individual’s guess. An example is the old “guess how many jelly beans are in the jar” contest. It has been shown that the average guess of each carnival goer is often surprisingly close to the precise amount of candy beans, and much better than the guess of most random participants. Let’s try our luck as a community on some predictions.

While many fans are focused on trade rumors and the upcoming 2022 NBA Draft, Daryl Morey and Elton Brand are also focused on working with their star guard to figure out James Harden’s contract situation. Will the seven-time All-NBA California native opt for his whopping $47 million option and siphon precious wiggle room under the salary-cap apron? Will he opt out and restructure a new deal that allows the team a chance to add some support to win now? Will things fall apart and he’ll end up getting calls from rival teams?

We have many questions about this situation. Before we get into the details, let’s take a look at how the Liberty Ballers betting community has been doing so far this season.

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In December, we voted on when we would see a Ben Simmons trade.

This looks like it was a layup in hindsight. But remember at the time, the Philadelphia front office did a good job of convincing people that they could actually take the Simmons trade. through the deadline of February 10 and in the summer!

Many of the top reporters came away convinced that the dying resistance was likely to continue, and Morey himself admitted that having Simmons on the roster after the deadline was a possibility the team was prepared for.

But you nailed the forecast by the nose:

The wisdom of the crowd prevailed by only 28 votes out of 934 votes.

In the following, we correctly predicted that the Sixers would defeat the Toronto Raptors in six games during the first round of the playoffs:

How did we know that they would close that series in a hostile environment in the north, was it because “Sixers in six” rolls off the tongue so smoothly?

The Sixers first looked to sweep the Raptors in four, but Joel Embiid’s thumb injury scuppered that plan. They then tried to liquidate Toronto at the cradle in five games, but inexplicably fell flat. If they had won that one, they could have prevented Embiid from taking a hideous elbow to the face in the extended garbage time of Game 6. But by hook or by crook, we got the pick before the series started.

So let’s get back to that forecast alright.

A reminder, Harden has until June 29 to decide whether or not he wants to take a $47.4 million annual salary for one year or turn it down and become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his Hall of Fame career. 13 years. So the onus is on the team to make it worth opting out, assuming that’s what Morey and Brand would prefer.

Will Harden play ball, like he hinted he would?

Ideally for The Beard, he’d probably like to find one or two teams willing to make him a max offer to push the Sixers to the limit. The most he can get on a five-year deal from Philadelphia would be more than $270 million.

Danny Leroux of The Athletic laid out two possibilities for an extension on Harden, which end up in the middle. One where their annual raises go up (giving the Sixers more spending now) and one where they go down (giving them more room later):

“Let’s say, theoretically, that Harden was willing to take $35 million a season for five years instead of his maximum total. In a new contract from 2022-23, it could look like this:

However, using player option, the two parties could structure the same total money like this:

Forbes’ Bryan Toporek provided a must-read deep dive into the different ways this could be shaken up.

According to Toporek:

“When asked after Game 6 if he planned to get his $47.4 million player option for next season, Harden answered, “I will be here.” He also hinted that he would be willing to settle for a non-maximum extension, tell the reporters“Whatever it takes to help this team grow.”

Depending on how much less he’s willing to accept, that could end up being the best case scenario for the Sixers.

If Harden opts not to become a free agent, he could take any salary up to $46.5 million in his first year, and his contract could go up or down by 8 percent each year thereafter. If he picks up his player option, he could sign a four-year extension with a starting salary of up to $49.7 million and the same 8 percent annual increases or decreases.”

And more recently, Derek Bodner of “The Daily Six” wondered “what should the Sixers prioritize in James Harden contract negotiations?”

As Bodner pointed out, (in his epic every damn angle accounted for analysis):

“I think the Sixers have to prioritize introducing a legitimate contender now, while Embiid is still happy in Philly and while he’s in his physical prime. That means clearing some space under the apron if possible, both to help facilitate a Tobias Harris trade if there’s one there that makes sense and improves his depth, and to be able to use that full exception to increase his odds of signing players. . who can hold out in the playoffs.

The second priority for me would be trying to get cap space in 2025.”

So with all that in mind, let’s try a survey. It’s going to be a double, since we forecast an annual salary and a total number of years.

Here we go.

Poll

In what $ range will Harden’s annual salary start?

Poll

How many years will Harden sign with the Sixers?

  • 10%

    0 – Opt out and leave in FA or a surprise sign and trade

    (13 votes)

  • 26%

    1: play the year we revisit this coming summer when it’s an FA

    (31 votes)


119 total votes

vote now

Tell your friends to vote too and let’s see if we can keep our lucky streak going. Check back when we know more to see how we did.

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