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Sam Burns in position once again

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Click to expand the latest US Open 2022 odds via PointsBet

US Open 2022 odds

Golfer Odds
Rory McIlroy +350
Colin Morikawa +400
Jon Rahm +400
scottie scheffler +700
aaron wise +1600
Joel Dahman +2000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000
sam burns +2000
Beau Hossler +3300
Brian Harman +3300
Xander Schauffele +3300
will zalatoris +4000
Brooks Koepka +5000
Hayden Buckley +5000
justin thomas +5000
Matthew Ne Smith +5000
patrick rodgers +5000
davis-riley +6000
Keegan Bradley +6600
adam hadwin +8000
Hideki Matsuyama +8000
Dustin Johnson +10000
Joachim Niemann +12500
Nick Hardy +12500
jordan spieth +15000
patrick cane +15000
Bryson DeChambeau +20000
David Lingmerth +20000
justin rose +20000
MJ Daffue +20000
marc leishman +20000
patrick cantlay +20000
brandon matthews +25000
callum tarren +25000
gary forest +25000
harris english +25000
max homa +25000
Shaun Norris +25000
Thomas Peters +25000
adam schenk +30000
Kyoung Hoon Lee +30000
sam bennett +30000
seamus power +30000
travis vic +30000
Andrew D. Putnam +40000

If we thought last weekend’s leaderboard was star-studded, we’re in for a surprise at this week’s US Open. Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen lead the likes of Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm by one shot, with Masters champion Scottie Scheffler looming just one shot further back.

The course at The Country Club in Brookline, MA proved tough once again on Friday, as the course averaged more than two shots over par for the round. Morikawa shot the day’s round with 4-under 66s, while Rahm, Scheffler, Sam Burns and Brooks Koepka shot 67s.

Conditions should only get tougher over the weekend as the course continues to dry out and the USGA pushes it to the limit like they do every year right now. We stuck to our guns Thursday night and I think we can expect the cream to continue to rise to the top over the next 36 holes.

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Strokes Earned Explained

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans much more detail on how a golfer has actually played measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, TOUR calculates how many shots it takes on average for a player to put the ball in the hole from any distance and situation. If a player exceeds those averages, he is winning strokes on the course.

Every situation in golf is different. Stroke Gains measure how well players perform in relation to the situation.

In this article, we’ll cover a variety of strokes earned metrics:

  • Strokes Earned – Off Tee
  • Stroke Earned: Approach
  • Strokes Gained – Around the Green
  • Stroke Earned: Putting
  • Strokes Earned: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Stroke Earned: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable in the long run, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find advantages in live betting by identifying golfers who hit the ball well, but fail to drop putts. Similarly, players with high SG: Putting Numbers may regress in the future.

3 golfers to buy in round 3

The best value I see on the board heading into the weekend is with Sam Burns at +2000 at BetMGM. It’s really hard to get better than that and quite frankly I don’t want to have to pay too much in a tournament that seems to be set up for one of the elites at the top of the rankings.

Burns had the second-best round of the day on Friday, as he was third-best in the field at SG: Tee-to-Green. He won 4.30 strokes of the most difficult morning wave and did it with balance on his entire bag. Burns reversed his problems off the tee to win shots there and took the lead with more than two shot wins on the approach. He will be looking to maintain that pace throughout the weekend and, with just three shots behind, he is a quality player who knows how to win as he seeks his fourth win of the season.

I have always been quite open about my doubts about betting on Xander Schauffele in the outright markets. His odds generally don’t reflect a player who hasn’t been able to close out time and time again, but I will say that victory may come eventually in a spot where he’s playing from behind and could post a number without all the pressure from the leader. It’s hard to tell if that spot will be on Sunday, but at +3000 it’s worth considering as he continues to improve throughout his round. I like him better for another top 5 finisher characteristic of him and that’s where I’d look first when those odds come out before the start of Round 3.

The only unlikely value I see is with Keegan Bradley, who is listed at +8000 on DraftKings and is just four shots behind. We know that Bradley can still show some of the best ball hitting on TOUR when he is at the top of his game and he has also been much better with the flat bat this season. To be clear, he still has his low points on the greens, but there seems to be a lot more to the upside and that’s where a dart at these odds could give us an out for Sunday.

Bradley was the second-best player on the field with his irons on Friday, earning 4.25 shots on approach. He earned a round of 1 under par leaning heavily in that category while losing field shots in every other metric. If he can at least get the other half of his ball to hit and find the putter a bit on Saturday, he certainly could get into final-round contention and that’s all we’re asking for in this issue.

3 golfers who fade in round 3

I have to take a position on someone at some point and going into Round 3 I’m going to do that with Jon Rahm. I’ve seen the vast majority of his play over the first two days and he’s done what he had to do to salvage his score this course, but he certainly hasn’t been too sharp. In the first round, his driver started to drift away from him down the stretch and a couple of lucky hook shots off the tee saved some shots that could have gotten away from him. The best example was on the 18th when a kid ran away with his ball, allowing a free fall from the grandstand resulting in a closing birdie.

Friday’s round was a big score at 3-under, but he had to work his way through par time and again to make it happen. While that is certainly a recipe for success at the US Open, he can’t hope to keep his place near the top while losing shots on approach. I don’t think Rahm will be able to stick to the putter to compete until Sunday and I’ll put the fade on him as the hitting of the ball is bad enough to worry me this weekend.

The weekend at the US Open will be pressure unlike anything Nick Hardy has faced on the golf course in his career. He’s T8 after a big round Friday morning, but for a player with only a career top-15 finish of his on the PGA Tour, I’m going to ban him right now.

Hardy also has the second-lowest tee-to-green number of players in the top 10, with only McIlroy appearing lower. The Illinois graduate won 4.40 shots on the greens through the first two rounds, with a nearly even split in those days. Those putts get a little harder on the weekend in a major and I think we can see him start to miss on Saturday, but he is a talented player to watch now and in the future.

My last swoon before Saturday is with a player who swept the field early on Friday. MJ Daffue was entertaining everyone as he dropped birdie bombs and even hit one on the hospitality tent deck in the second round. He went out at 6-under at one point in the round but crashed when he got home and I expect the negative momentum to continue into the weekend.

Daffue missed field shots in every metric from tee to green on Friday, only winning with his putter. That’s a troubling stat for a player who’s currently in the top 20 and I just don’t see him staying there unless he finds his ball hits again.

strokes Data obtained for all players in round 2

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