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Pliskova should dominate underdog Andreescu (June 15)

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The WTA tournament in Berlin is off to an incredible start and the order of play for Wednesday’s scoreboard is packed with fascinating matchups.

That said, I found value in two games that we can exploit.

Let’s take a look below to see where I’ve landed for my best bets and best betting picks.

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Note: Match schedules are subject to change. Read here for tips on how to watch tennis matches.

Caroline Pliskova (-122) vs. Bianca Andreescu (+100)

5 a.m. Eastern time

Pliskova played two excellent final sets in the first round in Berlin, defeating Kaia Kanepi 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-0. Pliskova was incredibly efficient on serve, holding all 12 of her games. The Czech won 70% of her first serves and hit 17 aces. On the return, Pliskova won 46% of her return points and broke Kanepi’s big serve six times.

Pliskova came within a set of the Wimbledon title last season and has an impressive 62-28 professional record on grass. The faster surface gives an extra boost to Pliskova’s already huge serve. Additionally, her flat shots traverse the court, leaving opponents’ strike zones. And Pliskova understands the right time to come to the net.

Andreescu won her second match on grass since 2018 in the Berlin first round, defeating Katerina Siniakova in a three-set thriller 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Andreescu was excellent on the return, winning 48% of her first serve return points and breaking Siniakova’s serve seven times. However, the Canadian will need to be better on her own serve as Andreescu suffered six breaks.

Andreescu is 14-8 on grass in his career, but has played just five matches on the surface since 2018. In theory, Andreescu’s game should work quite well on the surface, as his variety can get opponents out of trouble. your comfort zones. However, in none of Andreescu’s grass-court matches since 2018 has he won more than 60% of his service points.

Pliskova is a very strong grass player and she served incredibly well against Kanepi. Pliskova can also hit powerful, seemingly low-margin groundstrokes behind her serve that stay low and will make Andreescu uncomfortable.

Andreescu will drag Pliskova down the court at times, but I think Pliskova will be aggressive, punish Andreescu’s second serve and make her play more defensively than she wants.

It’s also important to note that while Pliskova’s grass-court Elo rating is 202.8 points better than Andreescu’s.

To choose: Pliskova ML (-122)

Maria Sakkari (-440) vs. Daria Saville (+320)

10:30 a.m. Eastern Time

Sakkari got off to a successful start in Berlin, defeating Leolia Jeanjean in a 6-3, 6-2 win. Sakkari won 92% of her first serves and did not face a break point in the entire match. The Greek also won 51% of her return points and generated 13 break points.

Sakkari has a professional record of 19-13 on grass, with a 3-1 record in 2022, but don’t let these records fool you. She still looked uncomfortable on the surface lately. Sakkari doesn’t move as well on grass and tries to play his game on clay less efficiently. And while that may be effective against an overwhelmed Jeanjean, it won’t work against high-level opposition.

Saville qualified for Berlin and came back from a set down to defeat Jil Teichmann in the first round. Saville returned well against Teichmann, winning 48% of the return points from him. This allowed Saville to generate 18 break points and break serve eight times. However, on his own serve, Saville committed 11 double faults, which will not be acceptable against Sakkari.

This year, Saville has held all of his Berlin opponents so far to less than 50% of his second serve wins and breaks a combined 19 times in the three matches. So while the Aussie only has a 19-21 career record on grass, she feels comfortable on the surface this week. Saville is moving well, showing a high tolerance for rallies and using the entire court with her variety.

Sakkari has the biggest asset on her forehand, but she’s much less consistent on grass and doesn’t seem comfortable moving on the surface or attacking the net. It’s hard to trust Sakkari to defeat an opponent on grass, especially a player like Saville who will make Sakkari work for every point.

Saville is certainly not a traditional grass-court player, but he is playing well in Berlin and has adapted well to the surface. While the 26 combined double faults in Berlin so far are worrying, Saville is playing well behind his serve when he brings it into play and should keep this match close.

To choose: Total Over 20.5 Games (-110)

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