Better positioned SFD player, Notorious, analyzes his favorite PGA SFD play in various salary ranges for next week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building on? Find out below.
Classic John Deere
If you are new to RotoGrinders premium, welcome to the team. Be sure to see all the great PGA content and join Discord for fun every week. If you’ve been a premium member for a long time, you know I’ll take it on the chin when a week goes wrong. I’m not sure I could have built a worse result for the Travelers Championship, at least for my budget. I decided to avoid Xander Schauffele (even though he qualified well and I play him every week) and my only hope on Sunday was a big round from Patrick Cantlay. Apparently he forgot how to play golf and racked up nine bogeys and a double bogey… A ROUND. Brian Harman was fine, but the picks featured in this article struggled as a whole. Lanto Griffin, Brendon Todd and Jhonattan Vegas all missed the cut. I’m trying to motivate myself even more after the bad results, so I’m ready to play again in the John Deere Classic.
The big story heading into this week’s event is the field ready to play in Illinois. There is not a single player on this course who is ranked in the top 50 of the official world golf rankings. This is one of those weeks where it will feel like a grind more than anything to research and create lineups. We should use this to our advantage. More often than not, SFD players tend to rely on optimizers and models when creating rosters for low-interest events. This means the chalk will be even more concentrated than usual and with very little disparity in talent between the top and bottom of the field, it looks like a good week to make pivots in all formats. This doesn’t mean we should avoid all chalk, but lesser property golfers are more attractive than most weeks. Also, it could be a good week to leave a small salary on the table.
Now, let’s go to the course. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,289 yards. Of the 42 golf courses I have data for, this one ranks as the sixth easiest year over year. Golfers will need to make at least 20 birdies to be in contention on Sunday. It looks like there is a lot of wind in the forecast for Thursday, but the winds will die down over the next three days and there may even be a little rain to soften the course on Friday. Make no mistake about it, this is going to be another bird festival. From the tee, golfers will see very wide fairways and some forced layups. This is certainly not a bomber track, but you can be aggressive if you want to (see Cameron Champ here last year). With easy-to-reach fairways and medium-sized greens, the regulation percentage green here (74%) is one of the highest on the tour.
In general, the easier the course and the easier the greens to hit, the more of a putting contest it becomes. This certainly lines up with the John Deere Classic, as Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth have had the most success here over the years. Fairways, wedges and putting is a combination that really works well on this golf course. You can also play regional narrative as there are many golfers on the course who live or play golf in this area of the country. I’m not looking to target a specific skill set off the tee, but I will certainly look for good putters and golfers who can rack up birdies.
Downloadable and customizable model for John Deere Classic
Key stats of the week
- Birdie or better %
- Earned Stroke Approximation
- Stroke Gains Putting (Emphasis on Bent)
- Driving Accuracy (or Total Driving)
Yards per hole specialists (based on holes in TPC deere race)
- Webb Simpson
- Kevin Streelman
- Denny McCarthy
- long faucet
- Brendon Todd
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