Nick Kyrgios vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
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One of the matches in the tournament – at least on paper – will be played on Saturday at Wimbledon.
World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas will face one of the most talented players the sport has to offer, Nick Kyrgios.
Where does the value lie in this blockbuster match? Let’s get into it.
Kyrgios is an elite player on grass
The Australian made headlines a few weeks ago when he claimed he is in the “top five or top 10” in the world on grass, but he’s not wrong.
Kyrgios is 42-21 in his career on grass and is 11-3 on the surface this year. One of those losses was a retirement at Mallorca, so he really only lost to Andy Murray and Hubert Hurkacz this year on grass.
Kyrgios has scored wins against Tsitsipas himself and other solid players like Jiri Lehecka and Marton Fucsovics.
With one of the best first serves in the game and low groundstrokes, Kyrgios’ game naturally adapts to the surface. He tends to add more spin with his forehand, allowing him to get closer to the net and stay comfortable.
Kyrgios has an Elo Rating on grass that is only 100 points worse than his number on hard courts and that is usually a good sign that someone is solid on grass, if you need further guidance.
His first round match with Paul Jubb was on a knife edge, but Kyrgios overcame that and throttled Filip Krajinovic in the second round.
In that match he hit 25 aces, committing just one double fault and not facing a single break point. Sheesh.
Tsitsipas makes big improvements on the surface
The Greek arrived this season 2-4 on grass since 2019, but this year he has achieved a good record of 8-2 with a title in Mallorca.
Although his grass court rating is over 230 points from his hard court number and almost 400 points from his clay court number, he has improved a lot this season. Tsitsipas has shortened his strokes by a touch and allowed himself to deal with the faster times on grass in a more tactical manner.
Wins over Benjamin Bonzi (2), Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson are no joke on grass and he is posting the best grappling and break percentages of his career.
In Halle, where Kyrgios beat Tsitsipas, the Greek’s second serve was a problem. He only won 50% of his second serve points compared to Kyrgios’ 81%. That was the difference.
He’ll need to be a bit more aggressive behind that serve and the first ball if he wants to get through service games with less pressure.
And with the way Kyrgios is serving, relieving the pressure will be vital.
Although Tsitsipas has improved a lot on this surface, Kyrgios should be a favorite greater than -140.
He is really one of the best grass-court players in the world and he is in good shape. We’re still in the early stages of the tournament, so fitness shouldn’t be a big concern.
Kyrgios outscored Tsitsipas by slim margins in Halle, winning 3 of 10 break points while Tsitsipas secured just 1 of 8, but that doesn’t reflect the class difference on this surface.
At the ATP level, Kyrgios has a 96.5% wait rate on grass this year, a remarkable figure. That puts him ahead of players who focus on serving, like Maxime Cressy, Reilly Opelka and Matteo Berrettini.
The pressure he puts on his opponents is relentless and when you factor in the fact that his groundstrokes are on a par with the best players on grass, this is a brutal matchup for Tsitsipas.
Not to mention, Kyrgios is 3-1 overall against Tsitsipas.
It does not mean that Tsitsipas can not win this match, but Kyrgios will win it much more than the 58.3% implied win probability he is getting at this price.
To choose: Kyrgios ML (-140, Bet -160)
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