Odds Bouzkova vs. Garcia
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Marie Bouzkova is showing that she can play at a high level on grass, defeating grass-court specialist Alison Riske 6-2, 6-3 in the third round.
But Caroline Garcia stands in her way to the quarterfinals. Garcia is currently on an eight match winning streak and will be a formidable opponent for the Czech.
Let’s take a closer look at this Round of 16 match.
Bouzkova A wall from the baseline
In Bouzkova’s only warm-up match for Wimbledon, she lost to Shelby Rogers at Eastbourne. However, since she arrived in London, Bouzkova has put a new spin on her game.
In her last win over Riske, Bouzkova won 67% of her service points and saved all four break points she faced. On return, he was a threat, winning 48% of return points from him, including 59% on Riske’s second serve.
Bouzkova was solid from the baseline, hitting 16 game winners and just 11 unforced errors in the match. In fact, in Bouzkova’s previous two matches at the All England Club, against Danielle Collins and Ann Li, she too had a positive win/unforced error ratio.
He has now improved his career record on grass courts to 15-12. However, Bouzkova’s level of play this week does not reflect that more modest record on grass, as the Czech is playing excellent tennis in London.
Bouzkova is an absolute wall from the baseline, clearly understanding how to move on the pitch. She’s flying around the court, taking countless difficult rally balls, not only back in the game, but with depth and accuracy.
However, when given the opportunity, Bouzkova can step up the court and break the ball. He has posted a combined 58 winners this week for a reason. Also, Bouzkova doesn’t like to go to the net, but so far he has won 32 of 47 net points in this tournament.
Garcia keeps winning
As mentioned above, Caroline Garcia is currently on an eight match winning streak. In the week before Wimbledon, the Frenchwoman won the title in Bad Homburg, beating Bianca Andreescu in a set and a break in the final.
This week, García has continued with his winning path. In the third round, Garcia defeated Shuai Zhang in a tight 7-6(3), 7-6(5) win. Garcia won 71% of her first serve points and only suffered two breaks in the match. On the return, Garcia won 38% of his return points against Zhang’s great first serve. He hit 39 game winners compared to just 27 unforced errors.
Garcia hasn’t had an easy road to the round of 16 either. In addition to beating former quarterfinalist Zhang, Garcia also had to beat British number one Emma Raducanu in the second round.
In all Wimbledon matches so far, Garcia has won over 70% of her first serve points and, like Bouzkova, had a positive winner/unforced error ratio.
It’s that control over his groundstrokes that makes the biggest difference this season on grass. As the Frenchwoman collapsed, he hit the ball hard, but without a clear game plan, leading to a large number of unforced errors.
Garcia has played this season on grass with a clear game plan to attack and be aggressive, but with a more measured approach.
Garcia is now an impressive 45-24 as a pro and 10-2 on the season on grass.
However, she took medical waiting time yesterday with a problem in his left thigh and hip area and this will be his ninth match in two countries in two weeks.
Fatigue coupled with wear and tear are certainly issues of concern for Garcia, who seemed to run out of steam against Zhang before finishing the match just in time.
The exact player Garcia doesn’t want to play when she starts to wear down is an in-form Marie Bouzkova. The Czech’s returning ability and her determination to keep the points alive will counter Garcia’s aggressive play and force the tired Frenchwoman to score longer points.
Bouzkova’s defensive ability and consistent depth will have Garcia starting over hitting her groundstrokes as well, even when the opening isn’t there.
This will be a game too far away for Garcia.
To choose: Bouzkova ML (-114)
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