Matthew Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris are currently T1 with a one-shot lead at 4-under coming into the third round of the US Open. Now, we’re looking forward to Sunday’s fourth round, which features plenty of support angles to attack PrizePicks.
Below are my five PrizePicks flex plays for the US Open 2022 fourth round. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.
Using the five plays below, get five of five correct records a payout of 8x, four of five correct records a payout of 1.5x, and three of five correct records a payout of 0.4x.
games with prizes
Jon Rahm: Round 4 Under 71 strokes
Rahm is T3 at 4-under after shooting a 71 on Saturday. The third-round 71 doesn’t tell Rahm’s full story, as he should have easily slipped under this number before an 18th-hole collapse that led to a double bogey.
Assuming he doesn’t melt on the final hole one more time on Sunday, Rahm should be under this total. Rahm has been dominant across the board so far in the tournament in every vital metric outside of SG: Approach-the-Green.
Among the remaining field, Rahm ranks 3rd in SG: Putting, 26th in SG: Around-the-Green, 2nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green. After shooting a 71 or so in each of the first three rounds, Rahm should be a good bet to continue his solid play on Sunday.
I wouldn’t play this total on anything lower than 71.
Patrick Reed: Round 4 Over 73 shots
Patrick Reed is T45 at 6 over par after shooting a 75 on Saturday. After successfully hitting this prop in the third round, I’m going back to the pit.
Reed’s play around the green has been his saving grace thus far in this tournament, as the rest of his game has been swoon-worthy. Among the remaining field, Reed ranks 55th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 48th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 48th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Reed will be eager to make his LIV debut as his game continues to decline and I don’t see him having much success in the final round of this tournament.
I would play this number up to 73.5.
Justin Thomas: Round 4 Over 71 Strokes
This is another accessory that we successfully pulled off on Saturday and I am taking it up again. Thomas is T25 at 3 over par after shooting a 72 in the third round.
Like Reed, Thomas’s play in this tournament has been saved by only one aspect of his game: his iron play. Other than that, the rest of Thomas’s game has had plenty of problems. He ranks 51st among the remaining field in SG: Putting, 45th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee.
Thomas’s frustration began early in the third round when the rules officials did not grant him free relief from a water drain, and the rest of his round was in trouble after that. With Thomas entering the third round already frustrated that his game isn’t at the level it’s been all season, I don’t expect him to have much confidence to bounce back in the fourth round with such a huge deficit between him and the top of the board. Positions table
I would play this total up to 71.5.
Will Zalatoris: Round 4 Over 71 Strokes
As I mentioned in the introduction, Will Zalatoris is T1 at 4-under after firing a 67 on Saturday. This play is more of a fading into recent history than anything else, as Zalatoris often finds himself in this position and doesn’t finish the job.
Throughout his young career, Zalatoris has always seemed to find himself at the top of the rankings without being able to emerge victorious. Aside from his retirement from the Open Championship in 2021, Zalatoris has finished in the top eight, without a win, in each of his last four major championships.
His metrics are excellent in this tournament and there is no reason why he should not be at the top of the leaderboard at the end of this tournament. However, as a huge fan of Zalatoris, I know that it is very likely that he will not be able to do it again in the future.
I wouldn’t play this number on anything higher than 71.
Brooks Koepka: Round 4 over 72.5 strokes
Brooks Koepka is T40 at 5-over after shooting a 75 on Saturday. Koepka struggled a lot in the third round and should have thrown even higher if it wasn’t for his big shot.
The rest of his play was brutal as he ranked 50th in SG: Around-the-Green, 61st in SG: Approach-the-Green, and 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green. While Koepka has dominated the US Open in the past, it looks like his troubled year will continue on Sunday as he is too far behind to come back.
I wouldn’t play this total above 72.5.
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