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Charles Schwab Challenge 2022 Leaderboard: Scottie Scheffler in control after Round 3 as World No. 1 stays hot

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This week’s Charles Schwab Challenge has become a microcosm for 2022: Scottie Scheffler is leading and everyone else is chasing him. Scheffler will look for his fifth win of the year on Sunday at Colonial Country Club after shooting a two-under 68 on Saturday that gives him a two-shot lead over Brendon Todd and Scott Stallings.

It didn’t seem like that would be the case for much of the day. Scheffler got off to a tepid start with putts for par 8-footers and 6-footers on the first two holes, and shot a par-35 up front before rolling in the back. He birdied the first two on that side and closed with another on the last to secure a spot in Sunday afternoon’s final pair.

While this is not unusual for Scheffler this season, it is a different experience than the one you have traditionally had on this golf course. Colonial isn’t necessarily the fit for the reigning Masters champion (he failed to finish in the top 50 in two starts here), but his leadership is no fluke. Scheffler leads the field from tee to green, and while he’s doing well so far, he hasn’t been that exciting in the first three rounds. In other words, this lead is sustainable on Sunday given the gap between Scheffler and a fairly average chasing pack, plus how wonderfully he’s hitting the golf ball.

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Let’s take a closer look at what’s at stake on Sunday with Scheffler in Fort Worth as he tries to continue what has been an absolutely dream season thus far.

Leader

1. Scottie Scheffler (-11): Scheffler was out of the conversation for two brief days at Southern Hills a week ago when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but other than that issue, he completely owns the season. The last two months of his have been almost comical. He followed up a win at the Phoenix Open with a T7 at the Genesis Invitational and another win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T55 at The Players before two more wins at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play and, of course, the Masters. His T15 at AT&T Byron Nelson felt like a complete failure, which should indicate the level at which he has been playing. He adds another victory on Sunday and a race heater suddenly turns into one of the best seasons of the last four decades.

Plus, if he takes the top prize of $1.5 million, it will be the second-richest season in PGA Tour history behind only Jordan Spieth’s 2014-15 season in which he earned just over $12 million. Also keep in mind: there are still three months to go until the season starts.

other contenders

T2. Scott Stallings, Brendon Todd (-9)

4. Harold Varner III (-8)

T5. John Huh, Cam Davis, Chris Kirk, Patrick Reed (-7)

Like I said, the chase pack is not elite. Any one of these guys is capable of winning a PGA Tour event, of course, but none of them will strike Scheffler with much fear. Todd really shot the round of the day on Saturday by two shots over the rest of the course, and he did all the damage for himself on the first nine holes on the course. If anything, that showed that there is a number for players to shoot, but the odds of one of the golfers at the top of the board shooting and at the same time catching Scheffler are not high. Data Golf gives Scheffler a 55% chance of winning this tournament.

Myth… again

Mito Pereira was the tragic figure of last week. He doubled the last hole of the PGA Championship when a par would have won it and a bogey would have put him in a playoff. However, Pereira handled it all pretty well afterward, earning him a lot of fans in the future, and now they have a chance to get the boy out of him on Sunday. Pereira is five behind Scheffler, but only three behind second, as he will try to do to this leaderboard what Justin Thomas did to him a week ago: come back from far behind and pick up a win.

Updated odds and forecasts

Here’s a look at the new odds after 54 holes, via Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Scottie Scheffler: -140
  • Brendon Todd: 7-1
  • Scott Stallings: 9-1
  • Harold Varner III: 10-1
  • Patrick Reed: 22-1
  • Chris Kirk: 22-1
  • Cam Davis: 35-1

It’s hard to know what to do with this one. Scheffler’s number isn’t great, but I’m pretty sure he’s going to win the tournament and I don’t really trust the guys right behind him unless you double his numbers. I figured he’d take a flyer on Reed or Kirk at 22-1 or Cam Davis at 35-1 and see if it plays out like it did last Sunday (he won’t, but that’s probably the play here).

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