Angelique Kerber vs. Elise Mertens Wimbledon Odds, Prediction, Preview (July 1)


Kerber vs. Mertens Odds

Kerber Quotas -300
Mertens odds +240
Below 20.5
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What would have been a stellar duel just a year or two ago between Angelique Kerber and Elise Mertens at Wimbledon has turned into what bookies consider to be a lopsided affair.

Is that evaluation accurate? If so, does the current number go far enough?

Let’s break down the matchup and see where the betting advantage lies.


Kerber back home on grass

There may be no player who enjoys the short grass season each year as much as Kerber.

The 2018 All England Club champion ranks near the top of the tour in both total wins and winning percentage among all women, and it’s easy to see why.

With some of the flattest groundstrokes on tour, as well as one of the strongest lower bodies to approach the ball, grab it early and launch it into open space, Kerber’s game was made for green grass.

The fact that he can create incredible angles in neutral rallies and that he possesses a lefty serve that he can spot accurately only adds to an incredibly strong fundamental foundation.

The form is there too, going 11-2 on grass last year, winning Bad Homburg and losing only to champion Ashleigh Barty at the All England Club.

This season she is 4-1 and has reached the third round, losing 11 games in four sets.

Mertens on a prolonged run of poor form

Before we get into the Belgian’s struggles, let’s first acknowledge something positive. Wimbledon marks the 18 in a row Slam that Mertens has reached at least the third round.

Now, to the not so positive.

The 2022 campaign has been a test of determination for many players. Garbine Muguruza collapsed on the court over her game, Elina Svitolina announced a break before announcing that she and Gael Monfils were having a child, but no one’s shortcomings on the courts this year have been as pronounced as Mertens’.

Her best win since mid-February came after retiring to Petra Kvitova. The only quarter-final she has achieved since St. Petersburg was in Strasbourg, against a weak field the week before Roland Garros.

Even his wins in the first two rounds were dull. Camila Osorio is not a grass court and only injury stopped her as she led by a set and a break before retiring in the third. Mertens also followed Panna Udvardy, who has played five matches in total on the surface.

He needed a tie break in the second and a 12-game third set to get past that.

bet value

With stylistic edges and form firmly in Kerber’s corner, statistical analysis between these two doesn’t help the Belgian’s case much either.

Kerber dominated Mertens when it comes to career holding plus break percentage, which isn’t surprising considering she’s one of the best of her generation on the surface. That advantage becomes more pronounced when only the most recent results are taken into account. the 2021 and 2022 grass seasons).

With an Elo Rating advantage on grass of almost 200 points, Kerber has shown that he hasn’t just racked up those impressive stats against mediocre and lesser competitors. Even considering the quality of the competition, Kerber, at this point, seems like a heavy favorite to win this.

For me, while crossing the four-game mark in the spread gives the German star a lot of respect, it’s not enough for me. This should be five flat games and a bit more expensive than +100. 4.5 games with more money is something that I will certainly look to attack.

Picks: Kerber -4.5 games (+104 via PointsBet)

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